Melbourne Cup Craze 2024: Onesmoothoperator Stakes His Claim as Race Contender after Geelong Cup Victory

With just a single race, Onesmoothoperator has moved from long odds outsider to one of the major favorites to win the upcoming Melbourne Cup. With Unusual Legacy pulled after just 200m, the way was paved for jockey Craig Williams to grab his sixth-ever victory at Geelong.

The spectacular win at the Geelong Cup has had an instant effect on the bookies: from an outsider at $33, Onesmoothoperator’s odds were slashed by Coral to $12, good for the fourth favorite. But can Onesmoothoperator actually contend at the Melbourne Cup?

Melbourne Cup Preview
The Melbourne Cup, “the race that stops the nation”, as trademarked by the Victoria Racing Club, takes place at Flemington Racecourse and is the highlight of the Australian racing calendar; beyond that, it’s also a cultural highlight, a public holiday that enjoys a massive build-up weeks before the event.

It’s a handicap race, where the weights are adjusted against age, and the horse must be 3+ years of age. Taking place over 3200 meters (equivalent to 1.99 miles) and the race has a 21% ‘hit rate’ when it comes to the pre-race bookies’ favorite.

However, in the last twenty years, only three of the number-one favorites have managed to realize their pre-race promise. Recent results can perhaps assuage those concerns for those fearing the 21% rate, recent results can perhaps assuage those concerns.

Onesmoothoperator is a Contender
Onesmoothoperator is now up there for the Melbourne Cup, Geelong is evidence of that but is nowhere near being a dead cert. Based on recent results, however, the picture is more than positive. In addition to the Geelong Cup, he also took home the Northumberland Plate earlier in the year.

He made the win at the Geelong Cup long easy, winning by two and a quarter lengths. What’s perhaps more impressive is that he looked to have plenty left in the tank, bursting away from the competition down the home straight. If he does win, he would be the fifth horse to ever win the Geelong and Melbourne Cup double.

Another plus point is that Craig Williams will be the jockey once again, and he will be hoping to repeat the achieved success. He was certainly feeling positive after the race, quoted as saying that Onesmoothoperator ticks all of the boxes for a Melbourne Cup Winner: he stays well, he performs well on both synthetic and natural tracks, and he’s both fit and healthy.

He described riding him like being on ‘cotton wool’, it was that smooth throughout the entire run. Williams even believes that more improvement can be squeezed out of Onesmoothoperator, perhaps enough to win the race. During the race, he also tends to adapt well, so Williams can make adjustments if necessary.

Analyzing Other Contenders
The current favorite for the Melbourne Cup is Jan Brueghel. Named after the Flemish painter, he’s currently the clear favorite at $5.5 odds. Closely following is Buckaroo at $7, with Vauban rounding the top three at $8.

Jan Brueghel is certainly looking good leading up to the race, but there are a few drawbacks for those thinking of placing a bet on his start. First, he’s still relatively inexperienced with just four runs.

He’s also three years old. Statistically, most Melbourne Cup winners are either four or five years old. Old enough to have some experience under their belts, but young enough to still be in peak physical fitness.

Another fact: if Jan Brueghel wins the Melbourne Cup, it would be at the earliest career point of any winner. History is against him, but it’s
otherwise very tempting. The eye test he passes with flying colors, and is so far unbeaten in his races.

Vauban is another one you should have on your list. He was the favorite last year but disappointed massively with a finish at 14th. That has affected his odds for 2024, but that may present an opportunity.

He’s still a very good horse, and capable of winning this race. The Mullins team, which trains Vauban, has already admitted a less-than-ideal preparation run last year. Will the adapted schedule have an effect this year?

Post-Race Hype Will Settle
Onesmoothoperator looked in great condition at Geelong, surprising many commentators. Before the race, he wasn’t fancied for the Melbourne Cup. The picture changed completely in the immediate aftermath, and he only has a few horses ahead of him in the favorites column now.

Don’t take those odds at face value, however. It is common for punters to go on a bit of a post-race betting frenzy, joining the hype train after an impressive race. Remember, the odds are not just based on what is most likely to happen. Betting activity also influences the formula.

And while Onesmoothoperator is certainly a contender, the odds may settle after a little while. If you’re confident about his chances, you will
probably get better odds a little closer to the race.