Leading contenders for the 2025 Melbourne Cup

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As the countdown to the 2025 Melbourne Cup continues, the markets have begun to shape a picture of the leading contenders for Australia’s most iconic horse race. Although the Cup is famed for its unpredictability—where favourites often falter under the pressure of 3,200 metres and an unforgiving handicap—some runners have already emerged as early market leaders.

While there’s still some time until the first Tuesday in November, punters and analysts are watching a handful of names with keen interest.

With that in mind, let’s dissect some of the best-backed thoroughbreds to be victorious in the ‘race that stops the nation’ – as punters look for strong antepost betting opportunities among the horse racing odds.

Al Riffa
Among the most widely tipped ante-post favourites is Al Riffa, a European raider trained by Joseph O’Brien. The Irish colt surged into Melbourne Cup discussions following an impressive win in the Group 2 Curragh Cup, where he demonstrated both stamina and class over 2,816 metres. That kind of staying ability has marked him as a genuine threat at Flemington, and his connections know what it takes to win—Joseph O’Brien famously trained Rekindling to Melbourne Cup glory in 2017.

Al Riffa followed that up with a win in the Group 1 Irish St Leger – and did so in impressive fashion en route to a four-length victory from Amiloc.

Al Riffa has been hovering around the 4/1 mark at the time of writing, though much depends on how he handles the long trip to Australia and acclimatises to local conditions.

Half Yours
Meanwhile, Half Yours is another who enters the 2025 Melbourne Cup as one of the standout contenders, and with good reason. His dominant performance in the Caulfield Cup was a statement win — not just in terms of result, but in the manner it was achieved. He settled beautifully mid-field, quickened impressively in the straight, and put a quality field to the sword with a strong turn of foot over the final 400 metres. That kind of acceleration, combined with his ability to stay the trip, makes him a dangerous prospect over the two miles of the Cup.

What also sets Half Yours apart is the timing of his form. Trained by Tony and Calvin McEvoy, he appears to be peaking at exactly the right moment, with his staying credentials improving with each run. Despite receiving a 2kg penalty for his Caulfield win, he remains well-weighted compared to the older, more exposed stayers in the field.

The Melbourne Cup demands a blend of stamina, tactical speed, and temperament —and Half Yours has shown he possesses all three. If he handles the step up to 3200m as expected, there’s every chance he’ll be right in the finish.

Valiant King
There is a strong case to be made that Valiant King could go a long way in the 2025 Melbourne Cup — and indeed, that he may have what it takes to win it. After producing a stunning performance in the The Lexus Bart Cummings at Flemington, the Chris Waller trained gelding has done more than just tick boxes – he’s demonstrated genuine staying ability, a strong turn of foot, and excellent form right into the Cup campaign.

First off, the victory in the Bart Cummings really sets the stage. Valiant King came from well off the pace, attacked strongly in the final stages over 2,520 m, and won by a decisive margin of 2¾ lengths in a very good time. That win secured him a place in the Melbourne Cup — putting him right in the mix, and importantly, suggesting he is in peak condition and up for the challenge.