The Kentucky Derby is traditionally one of the biggest betting races of the year in North America, and this year’s edition is guaranteed to continue that trend.
However, a quick look at the horse racing results in the race over the past few years highlights a statistic that sports bettors cannot afford to ignore.
Justify’s success in 2018 was the last time the favourite emerged victorious, which is a concerning trend for connections of the horses at the head of this year’s betting.
With that in mind, read as we assess why two longer priced horses who dominated the Santa Anita Derby earlier this month could offer excellent each-way value.
Kentucky Derby 2026 – Latest betting
Renegade – 7/2
Commandment – 5/1
Further Ado – 7/1
The Puma – 11/1
Chief Wallabee – 12/1
Emerging Market – 16/1
So Happy – 16/1
Silent Tactic – 20/1
Danon Bourbon – 20/1
Incredibolt – 25/1
Albus – 25/1
Potente – 25/1
Wonder Dean – 25/1
Fulleffort – 25/1
Golden Tempo – 33/1
Nearly – 40/1
Iron Honor – 40/1
Right To Party – 40/1
Pavlovian – 40/1
Intrepido – 50/1
Six Speed – 50/1
Stark Contrast – 66/1
Chip Honcho – 66/1
So Happy could defy expectations
While So Happy’s pedigree does not scream ‘future Kentucky Derby winner’, his performance in the Santa Anita Derby makes him an intriguing proposition.
So Happy overcame a rough start and a wide trip to wear down Potente in the final furlong to win going away by two-and-three-quarter lengths.
Given that So Happy was sired by Runhappy, the champion male sprinter of 2015, the manner of the victory was undoubtedly eye-catching.
Runhappy was unbeaten in seven starts over seven furlongs or less, but failed to finish better than fourth place in three runs at one mile or above.
However, the female line of So Happy’s family tree features several middle-distance winners – a factor which boosts his hopes of winning the Kentucky Derby.
Eleven Santa Anita Derby winners have previously won the Churchill Downs showpiece, highlighting that the form is worth noting when trying to identify this year’s winner.
So Happy is tactically versatile and has a high cruising speed, which fits the profile of many previous Kentucky Derby champions.
Odds of 16/1 represent excellent each-way value, particularly with two-time Kentucky Derby winning jockey Mike Smith in the saddle.
Baffert runner is worthy of respect
Bob Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby a record-equalling six times, so knows better than most trainers what is needed to claim victory in the big race.
His Potente earned plenty of praise when winning the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita. Intriguingly, So Happy was behind him in third place.
So Happy turned the tables in the Santa Anita Derby, taking advantage of Potente hooking up in an early speed duel to power clear of him on the run-in.
However, Potente was not disgraced in that race, pulling almost seven lengths clear of the third-place finisher to give the form a strong look.
Baffert will probably instruct jockey Juan Hernandez to ride Potente with more restraint in the Derby, which would boost his chances of reversing the form with So Happy.
Potente was purchased for $2.4 million as a yearling at Saratoga in 2024, so connections will be eager to secure a return on their sizeable investment.
His pedigree suggests that he will improve for the step up in distance, and odds of 25/1 could attract plenty of interest from punters looking for a value bet in the Kentucky Derby.
