The Preakness Stakes, the exciting second race in horse racing’s Triple Crown, is already on the minds of fans and bettors. Looking at early odds and how horses have run recently helps us guess who might win the big race at Pimlico in 2025. Right now, Journalism looks like a top
horse based on early betting.
However, there are other would-be champions in the mix.
Top Contenders to Watch Based on Derby and Preakness Odds
The road to the Triple Crown often starts with the Kentucky Derby. How horses run in the Derby, and even if they run at all, tells us a lot about their chances in the Preakness two weeks later. Let’s look closer at some key horses appearing in both the Derby lineup and the Preakness future odds.
Journalism
● Kentucky Derby Odds: 3-1 (Favorite)
● Kentucky Derby Post Position: 8
● Preakness Future Odds: 8-1 (Favorite)
● Trainer: Michael McCarthy | Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
● Big Wins: Santa Anita Derby (Grade 1)
● Analysis: Why is Journalism the favorite for both races? It’s simple: he keeps winning. This colt, trained by Michael McCarthy, is on a four-race win streak, capped off by a big victory in the Santa Anita Derby. Drawing the number 8 post for the Derby is generally seen as a good spot in the 20-horse field. His strong performances make him the horse everyone is watching for both Churchill Downs and Pimlico.
Sovereignty
● Kentucky Derby Odds: 5-1 (Second Choice)
● Kentucky Derby Post Position: 18
● Preakness Future Odds: 15-1
● Trainer: Bill Mott
● Key Race: Florida Derby runner-up
● Analysis: Trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, Sovereignty proved his talent by finishing second in the important Florida Derby. He’s highly respected, shown by his 5-1 odds in the Kentucky Derby. However, drawing post 18, which is far outside, could make his Derby trip tricky. If he runs well despite the wide post, or if he skips the Derby and points straight to Maryland, his 15-1 Preakness odds could look very attractive. He clearly has the talent to compete.
Baeza
● Kentucky Derby Status: Also-Eligible (Needs a scratch to run)
● Preakness Future Odds: 12-1
● Trainer: John Shirreffs
● Key Race: Santa Anita Derby runner-up
● Analysis: Baeza finished a strong second, just behind Journalism, in the Santa Anita Derby. Unfortunately, he didn’t quite earn enough points to guarantee a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate and is on the “also-eligible” list. This means he needs another horse to withdraw before Friday morning to get in. If Baeza doesn’t run in the Derby, watch out. Trainer John Shirreffs could bring him to the Preakness as a fresh horse, ready to take on rivals who just ran a tough race two weeks prior. His 12-1 Preakness odds suggest he’s a serious threat, especially if he skips Kentucky.
Cornucopian
● Kentucky Derby Status: Not entered
● Preakness Future Odds: 10-1
● Trainer: Bob Baffert
● Key Races: Impressive debut win, 4th in Arkansas Derby
● Analysis: This colt cost $1.1 million as a yearling and looked like a star winning his first race. However, he disappointed when finishing fourth as the favorite in the Arkansas Derby. Trainer Bob Baffert knows how to win big races, and Cornucopian has undeniable talent. The Preakness could be the perfect spot for him to show his true ability. At 10-1, bettors believe he can bounce back.
Sandman
● Kentucky Derby Odds: 6-1
● Kentucky Derby Post Position: 17
● Preakness Future Odds: 15-1
● Trainer: Mark Casse
● Analysis: Sandman is getting serious respect from bettors, shown by his strong 6-1 odds for the Kentucky Derby and solid 15-1 odds for the Preakness. Trained by Mark Casse, this horse is seen as a consistent performer capable of competing at the highest level. Like Sovereignty, he drew a wide post (17) for the Derby, which presents a challenge. But his presence near the top of the odds for both races tells you he’s a horse to take seriously.
Betting Insights: How to Interpret Future Wager Odds
Seeing odds like 8-1, 15-1, or 50-1 can be confusing. What do they really mean?
Understanding the Spread
Lower odds (like 8-1 for Journalism) mean the horse is considered a strong contender, and a winning bet pays less — a key concept to grasp when navigating your 2025 Preakness betting strategies. Higher odds (like 40-1 for Burnham Square or 50-1 for many others) mean the horse is considered less likely to win, but a winning bet pays much more. The wide range from 8-1 to 50-1 in the Preakness future wager shows a big difference in perceived chances right now.
Value vs. Hype
Sometimes, a horse gets a lot of attention (hype), and their odds become lower than their actual chances might warrant. Other times, a talented horse might fly under the radar, making their odds higher than they should be. This is “value.” Finding value means betting on a horse whose odds seem too high based on your own analysis of their ability.
Spotting Live Long Shots
Look for horses improving in recent races, horses whose running style might suit the Preakness (which can favor speed), or horses whose trainers excel at getting horses ready for big races after only a short rest.
Using Derby Results
This is key. The Kentucky Derby is the single biggest factor influencing the Preakness. A horse who dominates the Derby will likely become the Preakness favorite. A horse who runs poorly might skip the Preakness. Horses who finish well but don’t win the Derby often become top
Preakness contenders. Pay close attention to how the Derby unfolds – it will completely reshape the Preakness betting landscape. Adjust your Preakness bets based on what you see on the first Saturday in May.
Who Has the Edge for Preakness 151?
Right now, based purely on the odds and recent major wins, Journalism holds the early edge for the 2025 Preakness Stakes. His status as the Kentucky Derby favorite and Preakness future wager favorite makes him the clear horse to beat on paper.
However, horses like Sovereignty, Sandman, Baeza, and Cornucopian are serious contenders with strong credentials.
Pay Billy adds an interesting angle with his guaranteed spot and freshness. The final picture will become much clearer after the Kentucky Derby results are in. That race will tell us who is peaking at the right time for a shot at the Woodlawn Vase.
