Bob Baffert will be back at the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Photo via
As we approach the 151st Kentucky Derby, there seems to be little doubt as to who will be the morning line favorite for the race. Ever since he won a thrilling Santa Anita Derby on April 5th , it became clear he would get the nod.
Journalism seems like the right choice as betting market leader, and perhaps even a Triple Crown chance, but that’s certainly no guarantee that it will translate to a win. There are plenty of other interesting value picks among the 20 runners: Sovereignty, Tappan Street, Luxor Café, and Sandman, just to name a few.
Of course, there’s also the Bob Baffert horses. You can’t ignore the six-time winner in any Kentucky Derby betting strategy, even if the pair he brings this year, Citizen Bull and Rodriguez, aren’t listed at the top of the betting markets. Both are available at 20/1 with several sportsbooks.
Pros and Cons for each horse
The two horses are interesting for different reasons. On the one hand, you have Citizen Bull, an early pacesetter in the futures betting markets over the late fall and winter after winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, which was preceded by another strong showing in the American Pharoah Stakes. The race is a fair indicator of success in the Kentucky Derby, or at least for catapulting a horse into perceived contention.
Fierceness won the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, leading to his status as favorite for the 2024 Kentucky Derby. As we know, he flopped. The same goes for 2022 winner Forte, who led the betting markets for the 2023 Kentucky Derby right up until being scratched for health reasons on race day.
So, while you have to go back to Nyquist to find a Kentucky Derby winner who previously won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, you can appreciate the kind of status that was foisted upon Citizen Bull. Things haven’t gone to plan this season, though. He was fine in his seasonal bow in the Grade III Robert B. Lewis Stakes in February, but he was soundly beaten by almost 10 lengths by Journalism when finishing 4th of 5th in the Santa Anita Derby in early April. That caused his Kentucky Derby odds to plummet.
Rodriguez is progressing nicely
Rodriguez seems to have the opposite trajectory. He was beaten by Citizen Bull in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, although he wasn’t far behind in second. He stepped up in grade and in distance when 3rd (behind Journalism) in the Grade II San Felipe Stakes in March, and then got his first win of the season in the Grade II Wood Memorial.
He’s broadly looked better in every race, going up distance and class. There could be a sense of things coming together at Churchill Downs on Saturday. At the Wood Memorial, he really looked like he would handle the extra 1/8th of a mile that will be on the menu in the Kentucky Derby. His pairing with two-time Derby-winning jockey Mike Smith also makes sense, as Smith was able to get the best out of Rodriguez’s
front-running style at Aqueduct.
The truth is it feels like a bit of a puzzle. Do you go for the Grade 1 winning Citizen Bull in the hope he can rediscover last year’s form, or the fast-progressing frontrunner who feels like a bit of a wildcard shout? Or maybe you just swerve the Baffert horses altogether? But few would be surprised to see at least one of his horses become a major protagonist in a race where he can become the outright record holder with seven wins. We will soon find out.
